This week’s College Football Playoff bubble watch focuses on several key teams hovering just outside the current playoff projections. While the SEC and Big Ten dominate early playoff predictions, programs like Notre Dame, Utah, and Michigan are fighting to stay in contention, facing crucial matchups in Week 4.

Notre Dame, fresh off a dominant win over Purdue, needs to avoid a misstep against Miami (Ohio) ahead of a crucial home game against Louisville later this month. Meanwhile, Utah, after a strong showing against Utah State, faces a tough road test as slight underdogs at Oklahoma State.

Michigan, facing immense pressure, prepares to host USC in what could be a make-or-break game. A loss would push the Wolverines out of the top 25 for the first time since 2021. With Alex Orji starting at quarterback to revive an offense plagued by Davis Warren's six interceptions in three games, Michigan must recover after being overpowered by Texas earlier this season. That defeat knocked the defending national champions down the rankings and allowed Texas to overtake Georgia for the No. 1 spot in the AP Top 25.

Each of these teams faces pivotal moments that could make or break their playoff hopes as they navigate the playoff bubble in Week 4.

Missouri: The Tigers enter this weekend's matchup with Vanderbilt riding the momentum of a solid nonconference win over Boston College. Facing a Commodores team that has lost nine straight SEC games since 2022, Missouri is heavily favored and looks to build on its early success.

Notre Dame: After a disappointing loss to NIU, Marcus Freeman's squad bounced back in dominant fashion, crushing Purdue 66-7. This much-needed win keeps the Fighting Irish in the at-large playoff conversation as they prepare for a crucial clash against nationally ranked Louisville next weekend.

Utah: In their first Big 12 matchup, the Utes travel to Oklahoma State for a key early test in the conference race. With unbeaten Kansas State also in the mix, this game could help determine a frontrunner. All eyes are on two-time all-conference quarterback Cameron Rising, whose return is a major boost for Utah, the preseason favorite. This will be the first meeting between the programs since 1945.

Michigan: In just Week 4, Michigan faces a pivotal moment as they take on USC at home. With one loss already on their record, a defeat in their Big Ten opener could severely damage the Wolverines’ playoff hopes. Their path forward is tough, with upcoming games against ranked opponents No. 24 Illinois, No. 9 Oregon, and No. 3 Ohio State, making it essential to secure a win now to stay in the hunt.

Oklahoma State: The Cowboys are gearing up to give Utah a tough welcome to Big 12 play this Saturday in Stillwater. Led by quarterback Alan Bowman, who is fresh off a five-touchdown game, and running back Ollie Gordon, the reigning Doak Walker winner, Oklahoma State is poised to challenge Utah. Although Gordon has yet to hit his stride this season, the Cowboys' offense remains potent. With the Big 12 race wide open, the winner of this matchup will gain a strong advantage in the race for the conference title game.

Boise State: Despite a narrow three-point loss to Oregon earlier this month, Boise State remains in good shape, especially if the Ducks continue their winning streak. The Broncos are the favorites to win the Mountain West, but their upcoming road game against unbeaten UNLV will be crucial in determining their championship prospects. Boise State is still in a strong position as a Group of Five contender entering Week 4, even with one loss.

Memphis: The Tigers face a challenging path in the AAC, but their victory over Florida State last week was a must-win to stay in the Group of Five conversation. Memphis now prepares to face Navy this weekend before taking on Middle Tennessee, followed by a bye week. This extra time will allow them to get ready for a critical conference clash against USF on October 11.

As the season progresses, the first College Football Playoff Rankings will be released on November 5, and then every Tuesday through December 3, ahead of Selection Sunday on December 8. With the new 12-team playoff format, the top four conference champions will earn first-round byes, while the remaining teams, including the fifth conference champion, will be seeded 5-12 by the selection committee.

The expanded College Football Playoff will kick off with first-round games held on campus starting December 20. Quarterfinal matchups will then move to designated bowl sites, beginning on December 31. The semifinals will take place on January 9 and 10 at the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl, respectively. The road to the title will culminate with the national championship game, scheduled for January 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.